By Yang Zhen
楊震
Security has increasingly become a core issue in international politics since the Ukraine crisis and the issue of nuclear security has risen to a new height since the Cold War.
烏克蘭危機爆發以來，安全問題日益成為國際政治中的核心議題，尤其是核安全問題已上升到冷戰之后的新高度。
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a permanent conference on nuclear deterrence, an annual event within the framework of the Security Council of Russia. The meeting primarily focused on updating the foundations of the country's nuclear deterrence policy. According to Putin, Russia has always been highly responsible in matters like nuclear weapons, striving to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and their components. Russia's nuclear triad remains the most important security guarantee for Russia and an instrument for maintaining balance of forces in the world. In the updated version of Russia's nuclear doctrine, Russia expanded the scope of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence measures. Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, is considered as a joint attack on Russia. Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of such aggression. Furthermore, if conventional weapons pose a serious threat to Russia's sovereignty, it will also be grounds for a nuclear response. Russia also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus as a member of the Union State.
近日，俄羅斯總統普京主持召開核威懾問題常設會議，這是俄羅斯聯邦安全會議框架內的年度例會。此次會議主要討論了核遏制國家政策基礎的更新。普京表示“俄羅斯以最高程度的責任感對待核武器問題，將致力于避免核武器及其相關構件的泛濫。‘三位一體’的核力量仍是俄羅斯安全的最重要保障和保證全球平衡的工具。”在更新版的俄羅斯核學說中，俄方擴大了將對其采取核威懾措施的國家和軍事同盟的范圍：無核國家在有核國家的參與或者支持下，針對俄羅斯的侵略將被視為這兩者的聯合攻擊，俄方將以核武器進行回應。此外，當常規武器對俄羅斯主權造成嚴重威脅時，也將成為俄方作出“核回應”的理由。俄方還保留在白俄羅斯作為俄白聯盟成員遭到入侵時使用核武器的權利。
Russia's actions are not isolated as NATO has also been active in the nuclear field. Recently, the Atlantic Council, a well-known think tank, called for NATO to adapt its nuclear sharing program, suggesting the deployment of B-61 nuclear bombs to Eastern Europe and the establishment of a network of intermediate-range missile bases across Europe. The think tank praised Washington's decision to send Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles to Germany as a "good start," and insisted that it "does not impose a high enough price" on Russia.
俄羅斯此舉并非孤立，北約在核領域也動作頻頻。不久前，著名智庫大西洋理事會呼吁“北約必須調整其核共享計劃”，建議將B－61原子彈運往東歐，并在整個歐洲建立中程導彈基地網絡。該智庫稱贊華盛頓向德國運送戰斧和SM－6導彈的決定是一個“良好的開端”，但認為此舉“沒有向俄羅斯施加足夠的壓力”。
The US had deployed hundreds of new nuclear bombs at several air bases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Türkiye as of last year. There are also reports that the US plans to redeploy nuclear weapons in the UK after a 15-year hiatus. Additionally, the topic of "extended deterrence" was discussed for the first time during the "2+2" talks between the foreign and defense ministers of Japan and the US this year. The US pledged to use military force, including nuclear weapons, to protect its allies.
截至去年，美國已在德國、荷蘭、比利時、意大利和土耳其的多個空軍基地部署了上百枚新型核彈。還有消息稱，美國正計劃在時隔15年后重新在英國部署核武器。此外，日本和美國今年舉行的外交部長和國防部長“2＋2”會談上，首次討論“延伸威懾”：美國承諾使用包括核武器在內的軍事力量保護盟國的問題。
The confrontation between Russia and NATO on nuclear security is bound to have serious consequences in the security field.
俄羅斯和北約在核安全問題上的對抗注定在安全領域造成嚴重影響。
First, it will worsen the global security environment. As the large holders of nuclear arsenals, Russia and NATO are essentially in a spiral of confrontation. Given the high intensity of previous conflicts, there is now little room for compromise between the two sides.
首先，將惡化全球安全環境。作為最大的核武裝擁有者，俄羅斯和北約實際上已陷入螺旋式對抗軌道，且由于前期對抗強度太大，雙方的妥協余地已很小。
Second, it will change the nature of nuclear weapons. Currently, the world is in the intermediate to advanced stages of informationized warfare. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and big data are being increasingly applied to military fields. In particular, AI has significantly altered the face of warfare. The confrontation between the US and Russia in the nuclear field will likely lead to the application of emerging military technologies to nuclear weapons and fundamentally change its nature.
其次，核武器本身將會發生變化。當前正處于信息化戰爭的中高級階段。人工智能、大數據等新興技術逐漸被廣泛運用于軍事領域。特別是人工智能技術，很大程度上改變了戰爭的面貌。而美俄在核領域的對抗將導致新興軍事技術運用于核武器，改變核武器的性質。
Third, it will further deteriorate the international nuclear arms control system. In recent years, the arms control mechanisms established during the Cold War have been continuously undermined. After the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Russia announced in February 2023 that it would suspend its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the US, halting the sharing of nuclear weapon information. The US subsequently announced it would stop exchanging nuclear data with Russia as well. With the US and Russia holding over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, their repeated breaches of agreements put the mutual supervision and transparency mechanisms in the nuclear arms control field at risk of collapse, which severely impacts the international arms control framework. The ongoing "nuclear confrontation" between the two will further damage this system.
最后，國際核軍控體系面臨更大破壞。近年來，冷戰期間建立的核軍控機制不斷遭到破壞。繼美國退出《反導條約》和《中導條約》之后，俄羅斯于2023年2月宣布暫停履行與美國簽署的《新削減戰略武器條約》，停止與其分享核武器的相關信息。美國隨后也宣布停止與俄羅斯交換核武器數據。擁有全世界90％以上核武器的美俄不斷“失約”，使雙方在核軍控領域的相互監督和透明機制面臨崩潰的風險，進而嚴重沖擊國際核軍控體系。而未來雙方在“核對抗”過程中將使該體系遭受更嚴重的破壞。
(The author is deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.)
(作者為上海政法學院東北亞研究中心副主任)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
